Cash Flow Forecasting for Clinics Using AR Aging + Payer Lag Curves

Smarter Financial Planning Starts with Understanding What You’re Really Owed

One of the biggest challenges for medical and dental practices isn't generating revenue—it's timing. Claims might be submitted today, but when will the money actually arrive?

Inconsistent cash flow creates payroll stress, missed payments, and delays in strategic planning. The key to solving this? Pairing Accounts Receivable (AR) Aging reports with payer lag curves to build an accurate, data-driven cash flow forecast.

At ACCORDPRO, we help clinics of all sizes move from guesswork to precision with simple, smart tools that turn AR data into actionable financial insight.

What Is AR Aging—and Why It’s Only Half the Story

Your AR Aging Report shows how long claims have been outstanding, grouped in buckets:

• 0–30 days

• 31–60 days

• 61–90 days

• 91+ days

This helps identify old claims, billing delays, and potential write-offs. But it doesn’t tell you when those amounts will be paid—or how likely they are to be collected.

Without knowing actual payment patterns by payer, AR aging can paint a misleading picture.

Introducing Payer Lag Curves

Payer Lag Curves show the typical number of days it takes each payer to remit payment after a clean claim submission.

Example:

• Payer A (Commercial): 14 days average

• Payer B (Medicare): 21 days

• Payer C (Medicaid): 45 days

By analyzing historical payments, you can build a “lag profile” for each payer, helping you forecast when pending revenue will hit your bank account.

How to Combine AR Aging + Payer Lag for Cash Flow Forecasting

1. Segment Your AR Aging Report by Payer Instead of looking at AR in bulk, break it down by payer and aging category.

2. Apply Historical Lag Patterns Use your EHR, billing software, or RCM partner’s data to calculate average payment times for each payer.

3. Weight AR Buckets Based on Collectibility Not all outstanding claims are created equal. Claims aged 90+ days have a lower chance of being paid in full—adjust your forecast accordingly.

4. Forecast Weekly or Monthly Inflows Multiply the dollar value in each bucket by the likelihood and timing of payment based on historical behavior. This creates a realistic cash inflow schedule.

5. Compare Forecasted Inflows to Outflows Layer in payroll, rent, vendor payments, and recurring expenses to identify future cash gaps or surpluses.

This gives your leadership team a realistic look at how much money is coming in—and when.

Benefits of Forecasting This Way

• Avoid payroll and vendor payment crunches

• Make proactive spending decisions

• Plan for growth with greater certainty

• Spot problematic payers or denial trends early

• Communicate clearly with partners, banks, or investors

How ACCORDPRO Can Help

We provide full-service bookkeeping + billing support designed specifically for healthcare and multi-entity groups. That means we not only track AR and payer behavior—we turn that data into custom cash flow reports and forecasts that help you plan, hire, invest, and grow.

Our team uses AR aging, lag curves, collection ratios, and denial data to give you forecasting you can actually trust—without relying on guesswork or outdated reports.

Final Thoughts

Strong cash flow isn’t just about collecting faster—it’s about forecasting smarter. When you combine AR aging with payer-specific lag data, your clinic can confidently navigate revenue cycles, plan for expenses, and avoid financial stress.

Want to build your first payer-based cash flow forecast?

 📞 Contact ACCORDPRO at 425-215-0517 or visit www.accordpros.com to schedule a free financial visibility assessment.